Climate change will lead to changes in the weather across the globe, with some places getting hotter or wetter, and others cooler or drier. These changes will, in turn, lead to changes in food production. Researchers at the Climate Impact Lab measured the effect of climate change on six staple crops—corn, soybean, rice, wheat, cassava and sorghum. They found every additional degree Celsius of global warming on average drags down the world’s ability to produce food by 120 calories per person per day, or about 4 percent of current daily consumption.
But these impacts are not equal around the world. Today’s richer, breadbasket regions that currently have moderate temperatures and limited experience with adaptation experience the greatest losses—about 40 percent. The world’s poorest regions also experience significant losses, with crops declining 20-30 percent by the end of the century. Taking actions to adapt—like switching crop varieties, shifting planting and harvesting dates, or altering fertilizer use—doesn’t eliminate the threat. The data shows adaptation measures can offset about one-third of climate-related agricultural losses in 2100 if emissions continue to rise, but two-thirds of losses remain.