This summer, many in the U.S. and Europe are suffering from extreme heat waves. By 2050, these wealthier, and even middle-income, regions are expected to use more energy to power air conditioning, a new Climate Impact Lab report shows. But many other areas of the world will still not have that luxury. The report finds that electricity use is projected to grow seven times more in middle-income than in low-income countries due to climate change. Even with rising temperatures, the projected increase in electricity use per person in low-income countries would be enough to power only a single LED bulb for four months.
The report identifies areas in 18 countries where people are trapped in a deadly combination of extreme heat and lack of cooling, leading to 377,000 deaths each year. Most of these deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia. For example, 89 percent of Pakistan’s population is trapped in this extreme heat and lack of access to AC, leading to over 150,000 more deaths each year by 2050. These trapped countries sit in stark contrast to their wealthier neighbors. Take Niger and Saudi Arabia—they’re equally hot, but Niger’s electricity use will be 1/9th that of Saudi Arabia’s and 27,000 more people will die in Niger annually than in Saudi Arabia.
The core conclusion: energy policy is climate adaptation policy, as adaptation will require reliable electricity markets and resilient grid infrastructure that provide affordable access. The results point to where policies and funding can be geographically targeted.