Lars Peter Hansen
This paper uses insights from decision theory under uncertainty to explore research challenges in climate economics. We embrace a broad perspective of uncertainty with three components: risk (probabilities assigned by a given model), ambiguity (level of confidence in alternative models), and misspecification (potential shortfalls in existing models). We survey recent climate science research that exposes the uncertainty in climate dynamics that is pertinent in economic analyses and relevant for using models to provide policy guidance. The uncertainty components and their implications for decision theory help us frame this evidence and expose the modeling and evidential challenges.
Areas of Focus: Climate Change
, Climate Economics
Climate change is an urgent global challenge. EPIC research is helping to assess its impacts, quantify its costs, and identify an efficient set of policies to reduce emissions and adapt...
, Climate Law & Policy
Climate change will affect every sector of the economy, both locally and globally. EPIC research is quantifying these effects to help guide policymakers, businesses, and individuals working to mitigate and...
, Climate Science
Climate Law & Policy
As countries around the world implement policies to confront climate change, EPIC research is calculating which policies will have the most impact for the least cost.
EPIC’s interdisciplinary team of researchers is contributing to a cross-cutting body of knowledge on the scientific causes of climate change and its social consequences.