This chapter deals with the implications of uncertainty in the practice of climate modeling for communicating model-based findings to decision-makers, particularly high-resolution predictions1 intended to inform decision-making on adaptation to climate change. Our general claim is that methodological reflections on uncertainty in scientific practices should provide guidance on how their results can be used more responsibly in decision support. In the case of decisions that need to be made to adapt to climate change, societal actors, both public and private, are confronted with deep uncertainty. In fact, it has been argued that some of the questions these actors may ask ‘cannot be answered by science’. 2 In this chapter, the notions of ‘reliability’ are examined critically, in particular the manner(s) in which the reliability of climate model findings pertaining to model-based high-resolution climate predictions is communicated. A broader discussion of these issues can be found in the chapter by Beck (this volume).
Areas of Focus: Climate Change
, Climate Economics
Climate change is an urgent global challenge. EPIC research is helping to assess its impacts, quantify its costs, and identify an efficient set of policies to reduce emissions and adapt...
, Climate Law & Policy
Climate change will affect every sector of the economy, both locally and globally. EPIC research is quantifying these effects to help guide policymakers, businesses, and individuals working to mitigate and...
, Climate Science
Climate Law & Policy
As countries around the world implement policies to confront climate change, EPIC research is calculating which policies will have the most impact for the least cost.
EPIC’s interdisciplinary team of researchers is contributing to a cross-cutting body of knowledge on the scientific causes of climate change and its social consequences.