Using subnational data from 41 countries, we develop an empirical model of the mortality-temperature relationship that allows us to estimate effects where no mortality data exist and to account for the benefits of adaptation to climate. Importantly, we develop a revealed preference approach that bounds adaptation costs, even though they cannot be directly observed. Using future climate simulations, we compute a median willingness-to-pay of $20 (moderate emissions scenario) to $39 (high emissions scenario) to avoid excess mortality risk from warming (2015 USD, 3% discount rate). Allocating these costs to 24,378 political units, we find substantial heterogeneity.

Areas of Focus: Climate Change
Definition
Climate Change
Climate change is an urgent global challenge. EPIC research is helping to assess its impacts, quantify its costs, and identify an efficient set of policies to reduce emissions and adapt...
Climate Economics
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Climate Economics
Climate change will affect every sector of the economy, both locally and globally. EPIC research is quantifying these effects to help guide policymakers, businesses, and individuals working to mitigate and...
Climate Science
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Climate Science
EPIC’s interdisciplinary team of researchers is contributing to a cross-cutting body of knowledge on the scientific causes of climate change and its social consequences.