Weather-risk management has many facets. One particularly costly challenge comes from “chasing the forecast.” The Forecast Direction Error (FDE) approach was deployed to address the dilemma facing decision-makers who face this challenge: today’s probabilistic weather forecasts contain too much information to be ignored, but not enough information to be safely acted on as probability forecasts. Success was obtained by focusing on the information content of forecasts, and restricting their use to tasks in which the forecasts are informative in practice.
Areas of Focus: Climate Change
, Climate Science
Climate change is an urgent global challenge. EPIC research is helping to assess its impacts, quantify its costs, and identify an efficient set of policies to reduce emissions and adapt...
EPIC’s interdisciplinary team of researchers is contributing to a cross-cutting body of knowledge on the scientific causes of climate change and its social consequences.