Climate Change and Heat-Induced Mortality in India

Climate Impact Lab

Key Takeaways

1. India’s energy use is expected to more than double by 2040, largely driven by fossil fuels.
2. With continued high emissions, the average annual temperature in India is projected to increase from about 24°C to about 28°C by the end of the century.
3. The average temperature masks differences across regions. For example, Delhi’s current summer average temperature of 31.5°C is projected to increase to over 35°C in 2100.
4. Extremely hot days are expected to greatly increase, with days over 35°C increasing from about 5 per year in 2010 to about 42 per year in 2100.
5. Punjab is currently the state with the highest average summer temperature. If emissions continue on the current high path, 16 out of 36 states and UTs are projected to be hotter than the current hottest state at the century’s close.
6. India is projected to see around an increase of death rates due to climate change equal to about 10% of the current death rate. That is, 60 deaths per 100,000 population by the end of the century under a scenario of continued emissions (RCP 8.5).
7. By 2100, around 1.5 million more people are projected to die each year as a result of climate change—at a rate as high as the death rate from all infectious diseases in India today.
8. India stands to substantially benefit if countries globally take bold actions to reduce emissions. Shifting to a lower emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) sees the excess death rate drop to about 10 per 100,000, a change of about 2% of current levels.
9. Taking measures to adapt would greatly improve the heat related death rate for people living in India.