By Andrew Freedman

In the blitz of media coverage following the Trump administration’s Black Friday release of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), one statistic kept popping up:

By the end of the century, global warming could cost the U.S. 10% of its gross domestic product.

I spent part of this week tracking down the origins of that frightening statistic.

Why it matters: This figure has been used to indicate that global warming will inflict massive economic costs on the U.S. if dramatic actions to adapt to climate change and curtail emissions are not taken in the next decade.

  • Critics, including the White House, have seized upon the statistic to paint the report as “radical” and “extreme.”
  • The White House and EPA are attacking the figure and say billionaire activists and research funders Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg are behind it.

Background: The stat can be traced to a 2017 study, published in the journal Science, that quantified the economic costs to the U.S. for various amounts of climate change.

Amir Jina, an economist at the University of Chicago and a co-author of that study, told Axios he was not surprised the 10% statistic was used in the NCA4, but he has been “a little disappointed” at how the media focused on it.

“I still obviously stand by the work that we did, and that number does come from this paper, but I think it needs more nuance in the way that it’s presented,” Jina told Axios.

Continue reading at Axios…

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Areas of Focus: Climate Change
Definition
Climate Change
Climate change is an urgent global challenge. EPIC research is helping to assess its impacts, quantify its costs, and identify an efficient set of policies to reduce emissions and adapt...
Climate Economics
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Climate Economics
Climate change will affect every sector of the economy, both locally and globally. EPIC research is quantifying these effects to help guide policymakers, businesses, and individuals working to mitigate and...
Climate Law & Policy
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Climate Law & Policy
As countries around the world implement policies to confront climate change, EPIC research is calculating which policies will have the most impact for the least cost.
Climate Change and the U.S. Economic Future
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Climate Change and the U.S. Economic Future
The effects of climate change will be different across the country, with some of the worst impacts falling on already-disadvantaged regions.