Got A Favorite 2017 Energy Forecast? Technology Will Make It Obsolete
With a new year, many analysts will be making predictions about energy markets in 2017. But while these forecasts routinely turn out to be wrong, the errors should not be viewed as mistakes. Instead, they point to the key role changing technology has played in the energy landscape in recent years.
As we make our way into the new year, many analysts will be making predictions about energy markets in 2017. Chief among them is the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which just released its latest Annual Energy Outlook. The Outlook offers predictions about the future of energy prices, production and consumption in the United States. As with stock prices, interest rates and consumer spending, making predictions about the future of energy markets is fundamentally hard. In recent years, EIA has found that its own predictions of crude oil and natural gas prices differ from realized prices by 30 to 35%. Their forecast errors for renewables are sometimes even larger.