Despite global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, significant challenges remain in balancing equity and climate targets. Current and projected emissions reveal a stark disparity between OECD and non-OECD countries.
Historically, from the industrial revolution to 2020, OECD countries—which make up only 17% of the population—have accounted for about 56% of emissions. But moving forward, that trend is expected to reverse, with non-OECD countries emitting more than OECD countries. By 2100, its projected global emissions will increase to 45.2 billion metric tons of CO₂e. Of that, non-OECD countries make up 85%. Even if OECD countries achieve carbon neutrality, emissions from non-OECD countries would still exceed 38 billion metric tons of CO₂e, far above the 5.5 billion metric tons of CO₂e needed to limit warming to 2°C. This means non-OECD countries would need to cut their end-of-century CO2 emissions by 85.7%, relative to current projections.
This example illustrates the cruelty of climate arithmetic. Specifically, restraining climate change to the temperature increases recommended by scientists requires the vast majority of emissions reductions to come from today’s poorer countries. These countries are most in need of higher energy consumption (and least willing to pay extra for low carbon energy sources), account for the great majority of the world’s population, and have emitted the least to date. It is not difficult to imagine that they have an incredulous reaction when they are confronted with unfunded calls from the international community to reduce their emissions. At the same time, these poor countries are projected to suffer the most absent emission cuts, because their projected damages are so much higher. These countries are between a rock and a hard place and this is the cruelty of climate arithmetic.